Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel reportedly predicted the 2016 election outcome accurately in all fifty states.
Following the November 2020 Presidential Election he analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes and discovered alarming anomalies in a number of counties, ones that defy trends that (in some cases) have proved reliable for over 100 years. He has published reports by county and by state that indicate which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences.
Seth has been an advisor to Former Lt. General Michael Flynn and Federal Lawyer Sidney Powell.
In the following pages you will find maps and charts that flag each county as red, yellow or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the trends, or diverged in statistically unlikely ways:
Where a large divergence is detected (red), this does not in itself prove fraud, but is a clear flag that the numbers should be investigated further.
Likewise, just because something is green doesn’t mean there are no issues with the county. The analysis considers trends, and Seth considers it “bulletproof” when he has access to party registration numbers. If a county follows the same trends as the past years and current numbers suggest, it goes as green. Audits of green counties might be considered lower priority.
Reports by State
|Trump votes||Biden votes||Potential fraud estimate|
The table above shows the official vote counts, plus the estimated number of excess Biden votes — this is the number of votes that are oddly above what the trends would suggest. These are based on trend analysis in the modern political era, considering population growth/decline, recent voter history, and registration information, including registration by party.
Seth explains that his estimates are always lenient, and do not account for cyber-attacks that flip votes more subtly in ways that avoid statistical detection.
|Flipped States||Based on this data, if fraudulent votes are removed, Trump would have actually won these states:
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, and thus retained the Presidency.
|Potentially-Flipped States||It’s also possible that Trump may have won additional close-call states if there was additional fraud such as cyber-attacks occurring: New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, New Jersey, New Hampshire.|
|Close Calls||These states would still have likely been won by Biden, but may have been closer than what was reported: Washington, Oregon, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Hawaii.|
|Mostly-Clean States||Idaho, Wyoming, Arkansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, Mississippi|
|Worst States||California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Minnesota|
Top 100 Worst Counties
Here is Seth’s graphic showing, in his opinion, the Top 100 counties we must secure Full Forensic Audits in in order to trust or restore the integrity of our election system:
This was tough to narrow down from 132, so a few had to be kicked out.
|Purple||the swing states in the electoral college: AZ, GA, MI, MN, NV, PA, WI|
|Red||Key audit targets in states won by Trump|
|Blue||Key audit targets in states won or “won” by Biden|
In Red and Blue categories, he did not choose unrealistic targets (like Cook or Los Angeles Counties, which would be very difficult to audit).
Source: Telegram Post, Aug 28, 2021
What makes this work accurate?
The polls are not accurate. Anybody that understands anything about analytics realizes that polls suffer from something called “social desirability bias”, where people don’t answer truthfully about which candidate they support or which party they support, which is how you end up with these 43-39 polls with 18 percent undecided. It doesn’t tell you anything. And they’re also made in some ways to suppress turnout, usually of conservatives.
“Polling is generally not an accurate thing it’s been that way for quite some time, but trend analysis is something that goes back decades as far back as these records are available, we’re talking about party registration data. It’s very telling in places like Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. That’s the most accurate predictor there is. And I was able to use data like that, including understanding dynamic shifts and trends to predict the 2016 election perfectly including, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And the data line over the same exact fashion this year was huge Republican expansion and gains in places like Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. So all the data suggests that these same states [were] turning more Republican. In Georgia, of course, we had a lot of issues on election day. But trend analysis is accurate, it’s plugged into real time, and it identifies behavior, registration data and population.”
— From interview with Seth Keshel, on the Gateway Pundit, Aug 5, 2021
General Flynn and Seth Keshel collaborated on an article in The Western Journal:
He calls it “a no nonsense, cold, hard look at facts, trends, and indicators going as far back as 1892”.
It’s not that we’re trying to scream a certain outcome right now, it’s that we’re wondering “Why is there no investigation into this? Why is nobody asking these questions?”
– Seth Keshel, in Doug Wade Interviews Seth Keshel, Jan 2, 2021
In addition to the state-specific videos shown in the list above, these other videos refer to the US election in general:
Doug Wade Interviews Seth Keshel, Jan 2, 2021. This provides a good overview of Seth’s methodology, using Florida and Pennsylvania as examples. It also covers the anomalies in “bellwether” counties and states (e.g. Ohio, Iowa, Florida and North Carolina) that traditionally predicted who would win the Presidency with 92-100% accuracy, but despite them predicting a Trump win, the end result went to Biden.
Captain Seth Keshel: The Numbers Don’t Lie - interview on The Professor’s Record with David K. Clements, July 9, 2021, containing more background on Seth Keshel and his work with Lt. General Michael Flynn, Sidney Powell and Lin Wood. They then discuss the trends and results in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida.
Seth explains the 6 different types of counties and their voting behavior, Telegram, July 26, 2021
Seth’s Presentation to Tarrant County, Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas, July 29, 2021
The Capt. Seth Keshel Interview Part 1: Who Is Captain K?, J Slay USA, Aug 10, 2021. See also Part 2 and Part 3.
Seth Keshel’s Presentation at Cyber Symposium: “Behind The Election Integrity Curtain”, Aug 11, 2021. Powerpoint slides can be downloaded from this Telegram link.
The Daily 302 Show 2A with Guest Captain Seth Keshel, Aug 29, 2021. They discuss the article with General Flynn, Kansas, Alaska, New Mexico, and other general issues.
Many more are available on Rumble.com
Upcoming Events & Presentations
|Tue Oct 5, 2021||
|Oklahoma City, Oklahoma||More info|
|Wed Sep 22, 2021||
Seth Keshel, David Clements, and Dr. Douglas Frank
|Missoula, Montana||More info|
|Tue Sep 21, 2021||
|Wilson, St. Croix County, Wisconsin||More info|
|Mon Sep 20, 2021||
|Richmond, Virginia||More info|
|Sat Sep 18, 2021||
Seth Keshel, Dr. Douglas Frank, David Clements, and many others
|Dallas, Texas||More info|
|Fri Sep 17, 2021||
Seth Keshel and David Clements
|High Point, North Carolina||More info|
Identify Electoral Fraud Yourself Using Trend Analysis
Following Seth’s trend analysis work, our independent team has dived further into the data and surfaced numerous irregularities. If you’re interested in learning more about Seth’s process and what else we’ve uncovered, see the following series of articles:
When Winning Margins Go “Off the Charts”Learn how to "normalize" a county's winning margin to identify abnormalities. What does this reveal about the 2020 election?
Historical County Analysis with Registration Data
Down Ballot Election Analysis
Voter Roll Analysis
The Art of the Steal
In most states, the certified election results and voter registration statistics are available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website for details.
The detailed historical spreadsheets that Seth sometimes uses appear to be the ones from USElectionAtlas.org, although we have not officially confirmed this. On that website, the detailed data in CSV format is purchasable for a fee, while some aspects are browsable on the website.
Statement by Donald J. Trump
Highly respected Army intelligence captain, Seth Keshel, has just released his Report on National Fraud Numbers with respect to the 2020 Presidential Election. I don’t personally know Captain Keshel, but these numbers are overwhelming, election-changing, and according to Keshel, could be even bigger in that they do not account for cyber-flipping of votes. They show I won the election—by A LOT! Now watch the Democrats coalesce, defame, threaten, investigate, jail people, and do whatever they have to do to keep the truth from surfacing, and let the Biden Administration continue to get away with destroying our Country. The irregularities and outright fraud of this election are an open wound to the United States of America. Something must be done—immediately!”
Follow Seth’s Updates
ElectionFraud20.org is not directly affiliated with Seth Keshel. We found his reports insightful, and have republished them online to make them accessible to a wider audience.
For the latest reports and updates from Seth, find him on Telegram:
Seth Keshel - general updates about the election and subsequent audits
Captain K’s Maps and Stats - limited to his maps, stats and graphics
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