Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel reportedly predicted the 2016 election outcome accurately in all fifty states.

Following the November 2020 Presidential Election he analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes and discovered alarming anomalies in a number of counties, ones that defy trends that (in some cases) have proved reliable for over 100 years. He has published reports by county and by state that indicate which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences.

Seth has been an advisor to Former Lt. General Michael Flynn and Federal Lawyer Sidney Powell.

Contents

In the following pages you will find maps and charts that flag each county as red, yellow or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the trends, or diverged in statistically unlikely ways:

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

USA Election Fraud Map

Where a large divergence is detected (red), this does not in itself prove fraud, but is a clear flag that the numbers should be investigated further.

Likewise, just because something is green doesn’t mean there are no issues with the county. The analysis considers trends, and Seth considers it “bulletproof” when he has access to party registration numbers. If a county follows the same trends as the past years and current numbers suggest, it goes as green. Audits of green counties might be considered lower priority.

Reports by State

Trump votes Biden votes Potential fraud estimate
Alabama 1,441,170 (62.0%) 849,624 (36.6%) 32,000 (3.8%)
Alaska 189,951 (52.8%) 153,778 (42.8%) 19,000 (12.4%) 🎬
Arizona 1,661,686 (49.1%) 1,672,143 (49.4%) 210,000 (12.6%) 🎬
Arkansas 760,647 (62.4%) 423,932 (34.8%) 8,000 (1.9%)
California 6,006,429 (34.3%) 11,110,250 (63.5%) 1,346,000 (12.1%)
Colorado 1,364,607 (41.90%) 1,804,352 (55.40%) 183,000 (10.1%) 🎬
Connecticut 715,291 (39.2%) 1,080,680 (59.2%) 117,000 (10.8%)
Delaware 200,603 (39.8%) 296,268 (58.7%) 27,000 (9.1%)
Florida 5,668,731 (51.22%) 5,297,045 (47.86%) 296,000 (5.6%) 🎬
Georgia 2,461,854 (49.2%) 2,473,633 (49.5%) 299,000 (12.1%) 🎬
Hawaii 196,864 (34.3%) 366,130 (63.7%) 55,000 (15.0%)
Idaho 554,119 (63.9%) 287,021 (33.1%) 15,000 (5.2%)
Illinois 2,446,891 (41.3%) 3,471,915 (57.5%) 295,000 (8.5%)
Indiana 1,729,519 (57.0%) 1,242,416 (41.0%) 74,000 (6.0%)
Iowa 897,672 (53.1%) 759,061 (44.9%) 0 (0.0%)
Kansas 771,406 (56.2%) 570,323 (41.5%) 48,000 (8.4%) 🎬
Kentucky 1,326,646 (62.1%) 772,474 (36.2%) 62,000 (8.0%)
Louisiana 1,255,776 (58.5%) 856,034 (39.9%) 36,000 (4.2%) 🎬
Maine 360,737 (44.0%) 435,072 (53.1%) 31,000 (7.1%)
Maryland 976,414 (32.15%) 1,985,023 (65.36%) 128,000 (6.4%)
Massachusetts 1,167,202 (32.1%) 2,382,202 (65.6%) 235,000 (9.9%)
Michigan 2,649,852 (47.8%) 2,804,040 (50.6%) 527,000 (18.8%) 🎬
Minnesota 1,484,065 (45.28%) 1,717,077 (52.40%) 228,000 (13.3%) 🎬
Mississippi 756,764 (57.6%) 539,398 (41.1%) 15,000 (2.8%) 🎬
Missouri 1,718,736 (56.8%) 1,253,014 (41.4%) 49,000 (3.9%)
Montana 343,602 (56.92%) 244,786 (40.55%) 46,000 (18.8%)
Nebraska 556,846 (58.51%) 374,583 (39.36%) 33,000 (8.8%)
Nevada 669,890 (47.67%) 703,486 (50.06%) 100,000 (14.2%)
New Hampshire 365,654 (45.36%) 424,921 (52.71%) 40,000 (9.4%) 🎬
New Jersey 1,883,274 (41.4%) 2,608,335 (57.3%) 327,000 (12.5%)
New Mexico 401,894 (43.5%) 501,614 (54.3%) 84,000 (16.7%) 🎬
New York 3,251,997 (37.7%) 5,244,886 (60.9%) 292,000 (5.6%)
North Carolina 2,758,775 (49.93%) 2,684,292 (48.59%) 257,000 (9.6%) 🎬
North Dakota 235,595 (65.1%) 114,902 (31.8%) 8,000 (7.0%)
Ohio 3,154,834 (53.27%) 2,679,165 (45.24%) 88,000 (3.3%)
Oklahoma 1,020,280 (65.4%) 503,890 (32.3%) 39,000 (7.7%)
Oregon 958,448 (40.37%) 1,340,383 (56.45%) 217,000 (16.2%) 🎬
Pennsylvania 3,378,263 (48.8%) 3,459,923 (50.0%) 504,000 (14.6%) 🎬
Rhode Island 199,922 (38.6%) 307,486 (59.4%) 45,000 (14.6%)
South Carolina 1,385,103 (55.1%) 1,091,541 (43.4%) 119,000 (10.9%) 🎬
South Dakota 261,043 (61.8%) 150,471 (35.6%) 11,000 (7.3%)
Tennessee 1,852,475 (60.7%) 1,143,711 (37.5%) 101,000 (8.8%)
Texas 5,890,347 (52.1%) 5,259,126 (46.5%) 675,000 (12.8%) 🎬
Utah 865,140 (58.13%) 560,282 (37.65%) 131,000 (23.4%)
Vermont 112,704 (30.7%) 242,820 (66.1%) 34,000 (14.0%)
Virginia 1,962,430 (44.0%) 2,413,568 (54.1%) 217,000 (9.0%)
Washington 1,584,651 (38.77%) 2,369,612 (57.97%) 333,000 (14.1%)
West Virginia 545,382 (68.6%) 235,984 (29.7%) 23,000 (9.7%)
Wisconsin 1,610,184 (48.82%) 1,630,866 (49.45%) 139,000 (8.5%) 🎬
Wyoming 193,559 (69.9%) 73,491 (26.6%) 1,000 (1.4%)

The table above shows the official vote counts, plus the estimated number of excess Biden votes — this is the number of votes that are oddly above what the trends would suggest. These are based on trend analysis in the modern political era, considering population growth/decline, recent voter history, and registration information, including registration by party.

Seth explains that his estimates are always lenient, and do not account for cyber-attacks that flip votes more subtly in ways that avoid statistical detection.

Flipped States Based on this data, if fraudulent votes are removed, Trump would have actually won these states:
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, and thus retained the Presidency.
Potentially-Flipped States It’s also possible that Trump may have won additional close-call states if there was additional fraud such as cyber-attacks occurring: New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, New Jersey, New Hampshire.
Close Calls These states would still have likely been won by Biden, but may have been closer than what was reported: Washington, Oregon, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Hawaii.
Cleanest State Iowa
Mostly-Clean States Idaho, Wyoming, Arkansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, Mississippi
Worst States California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Minnesota

Top 100 Worst Counties

Here is Seth’s graphic showing, in his opinion, the Top 100 counties we must secure Full Forensic Audits in in order to trust or restore the integrity of our election system:

Top 100 worst counties, election fraud

  1. MARICOPA AZ
  2. PIMA AZ
  3. CHEROKEE GA
  4. COBB GA
  5. DEKALB GA
  6. FORSYTH GA
  7. FULTON GA
  8. GWINNETT GA
  9. GENESSEE MI
  10. KENT MI
  11. LIVINGSTON MI
  12. MACOMB MI
  13. OAKLAND MI
  14. WASHTENAW MI
  15. WAYNE MI
  16. ANOKA MN
  17. DAKOTA MN
  18. HENNEPIN MN
  19. RAMSEY MN
  20. SAINT LOUIS MN
  21. WRIGHT MN
  22. DOUGLAS NE
  23. SARPY NE
  24. CLARK NV
  25. WASHOE NV
  26. ALLEGHENY PA
  27. BERKS PA
  28. BUCKS PA
  29. CHESTER PA
  30. DELAWARE PA
  31. ERIE PA
  32. L’WANNA PA
  33. LUZERNE PA
  34. M’GOMERY PA
  35. N’HAMPT. PA
  36. PHIL. PA
  37. W’MORELAND PA
  38. YORK PA
  39. DANE WI
  40. MILWAUKEE WI
  41. ROCK WI
  42. WAUKESHA WI
  43. MADISON AL
  44. ANCHORAGE AK
  45. FRESNO CA
  46. KERN CA
  47. ORANGE CA
  48. S. BER’DINO CA
  49. DOUGLAS CO
  50. EL PASO CO
  51. BREVARD FL
  52. HILLSBOROUGH FL
  53. LAKE FL
  54. PASCO FL
  55. VOLUSIA FL
  56. HONOLULU HI
  57. ADA ID
  58. LAKE IL
  59. LAKE IN
  60. JOHNSON KS
  61. SEDGWICK KS
  62. KENTON KY
  63. ST. TAMMANY LA
  64. CUMBERLAND ME
  65. HARFORD MD
  66. MIDDLESEX MA
  67. ST. CHARLES MO
  68. YELLOWSTONE MT
  69. ROCKINGHAM NH
  70. OCEAN NJ
  71. BERNALILLO NM
  72. ERIE NY
  73. NASSAU NY
  74. SUFFOLK NY
  75. BRUNSWICK NC
  76. MECKLENBURG NC
  77. NEW HANOVER NC
  78. WAKE NC
  79. FRANKLIN OH
  80. OKLAHOMA OK
  81. JACKSON OR
  82. MARION OR
  83. KENT RI
  84. HORRY SC
  85. RUTHERFORD TN
  86. BEXAR TX
  87. COLLIN TX
  88. DALLAS TX
  89. DENTON TX
  90. HARRIS TX
  91. TARRANT TX
  92. TRAVIS TX
  93. SALT LAKE UT
  94. UTAH UT
  95. CHESTERFIELD VA
  96. LOUDOUN VA
  97. SPOTSYLVANIA VA
  98. CLARK WA
  99. PIERCE WA
  100. SPOKANE WA

This was tough to narrow down from 132, so a few had to be kicked out.

Purple the swing states in the electoral college: AZ, GA, MI, MN, NV, PA, WI
Red Key audit targets in states won by Trump
Blue Key audit targets in states won or “won” by Biden

In Red and Blue categories, he did not choose unrealistic targets (like Cook or Los Angeles Counties, which would be very difficult to audit).

Source: Telegram Post, Aug 28, 2021

What makes this work accurate?

The polls are not accurate. Anybody that understands anything about analytics realizes that polls suffer from something called “social desirability bias”, where people don’t answer truthfully about which candidate they support or which party they support, which is how you end up with these 43-39 polls with 18 percent undecided. It doesn’t tell you anything. And they’re also made in some ways to suppress turnout, usually of conservatives.

“Polling is generally not an accurate thing it’s been that way for quite some time, but trend analysis is something that goes back decades as far back as these records are available, we’re talking about party registration data. It’s very telling in places like Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. That’s the most accurate predictor there is. And I was able to use data like that, including understanding dynamic shifts and trends to predict the 2016 election perfectly including, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And the data line over the same exact fashion this year was huge Republican expansion and gains in places like Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. So all the data suggests that these same states [were] turning more Republican. In Georgia, of course, we had a lot of issues on election day. But trend analysis is accurate, it’s plugged into real time, and it identifies behavior, registration data and population.”

— From interview with Seth Keshel, on the Gateway Pundit, Aug 5, 2021

Other Reports

General Flynn and Seth Keshel collaborated on an article in The Western Journal:

10 Indisputable Facts on the 2020 Election That Argue for Audits

He calls it “a no nonsense, cold, hard look at facts, trends, and indicators going as far back as 1892”.

Video Presentations

It’s not that we’re trying to scream a certain outcome right now, it’s that we’re wondering “Why is there no investigation into this? Why is nobody asking these questions?”

– Seth Keshel, in Doug Wade Interviews Seth Keshel, Jan 2, 2021

In addition to the state-specific videos shown in the list above, these other videos refer to the US election in general:

Upcoming Events & Presentations

DatePresenterLocationLink
Tue Oct 5, 2021

Seth Keshel

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma More info
Wed Sep 22, 2021

Seth Keshel, David Clements, and Dr. Douglas Frank

Missoula, Montana More info
Tue Sep 21, 2021

Seth Keshel

Wilson, St. Croix County, Wisconsin More info
Mon Sep 20, 2021

Seth Keshel

Richmond, Virginia More info
Sat Sep 18, 2021

Seth Keshel, Dr. Douglas Frank, David Clements, and many others

Dallas, Texas More info
Fri Sep 17, 2021

Seth Keshel and David Clements

High Point, North Carolina More info

Identify Electoral Fraud Yourself Using Trend Analysis

Following Seth’s trend analysis work, our independent team has dived further into the data and surfaced numerous irregularities. If you’re interested in learning more about Seth’s process and what else we’ve uncovered, see the following series of articles:

Overview Diving deeper into the unusual trends and statistics discovered in the 2020 election.
Part 1. A look at the surprising failure of the bellwether counties in 2020, and what that tells us about the Presidential election outcome.
Part 2. The data shows the Democrats are winning less and less counties at each election, but are winning more and more of the largest counties. How is this possible?
Part 3. Voter turnout rates shot up dramatically in many states in 2020. We look at the voting rates since 2000 to find out which states set a new record.
Part 4.
When Winning Margins Go “Off the Charts”
Learn how to "normalize" a county's winning margin to identify abnormalities. What does this reveal about the 2020 election?
Coming soon.
Part 5.
Historical County Analysis with Registration Data
Coming soon.
Part 6.
Down Ballot Election Analysis
Coming soon.
Part 7.
Voter Roll Analysis
Coming soon.
Part 8.
The Art of the Steal
Coming soon.

Raw Data

In most states, the certified election results and voter registration statistics are available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website for details.

The detailed historical spreadsheets that Seth sometimes uses appear to be the ones from USElectionAtlas.org, although we have not officially confirmed this. On that website, the detailed data in CSV format is purchasable for a fee, while some aspects are browsable on the website.

Statement by Donald J. Trump

Highly respected Army intelligence captain, Seth Keshel, has just released his Report on National Fraud Numbers with respect to the 2020 Presidential Election. I don’t personally know Captain Keshel, but these numbers are overwhelming, election-changing, and according to Keshel, could be even bigger in that they do not account for cyber-flipping of votes. They show I won the election—by A LOT! Now watch the Democrats coalesce, defame, threaten, investigate, jail people, and do whatever they have to do to keep the truth from surfacing, and let the Biden Administration continue to get away with destroying our Country. The irregularities and outright fraud of this election are an open wound to the United States of America. Something must be done—immediately!”

August 4, 2021, via Telegram and Gab

Follow Seth’s Updates

ElectionFraud20.org is not directly affiliated with Seth Keshel. We found his reports insightful, and have republished them online to make them accessible to a wider audience.

For the latest reports and updates from Seth, find him on Telegram:


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