See also the main article on Texas, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.


Texas Overview

Seth Keshel County Trend Map for Texas

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 5890347 (52.1%) 5259126 (46.5%) 158339 (1.4%)
Estimate of potential fraud 675000 (6.0%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
5890347 (55.4%) 4584126 (43.1%) 158339 (1.5%)

Estimating 675k excess votes for Biden, conservatively estimated. This would still give him a record high Democrat vote gain, as he was up 1.38 million from Clinton, with Trump also up at a record number 1.21 million. Counties over 50k listed in spreadsheet screenshot.

Since there is no party registration data available, my estimate is based on the 20-year pattern plus political trend. Trump trended Hispanic Texas heavily Republican, but somehow “lost” Tarrant County and lost big margins in suburbs despite huge ~30% gains or more in all of them. Democrat activity is obvious, many suburbs over 60% growth, huge urbans over 40%.

Put simply, massive Trump gains in San Antonio, Fort Worth, and Houston don’t agree historically with a corresponding massive Democrat jump in those counties.

If accurate on 675k excess Biden votes, Trump margin should have been roughly 55.4 to 43.1 (12.3%) with a margin of 1.3 million votes instead of 631k.

Best targets for audits (Republican-led): Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Wichita, Taylor, Bell

Estimates of Excess Votes by County

Based on Population Trends and 20-year history, and GOP growth correlation:

Bexar 60k
Brazoria 8k
Brazos 6k
Collin 50k
Dallas 50k
Denton 45k
Ellis 8k
El Paso 15k
Fort Bend 30k
Galveston 10k
Guadalupe 8k
Harris 80k
Hays 12k
Hidalgo 10k
Kaufman 6k
Lubbock 10k
McLennan 5k
Montgomery 20k
Nueces 7k
Tarrant 75k
Taylor 4k
Travis 50k
Webb 5k
Wichita 3k
Williamson 30k

The following chart displays how in 12 Texas counties that voted Republican in 2016, Trump made large gains in votes of between 16 and 41% over the previous election, and yet Biden somehow swept in and increased his overall votes by a whopping 42 to 74% in a single election cycle, flipping these 12 to blue. Does this seem realistic?

Seth Keshel County Trends for Texas


Many months later, Seth’s estimates on excess votes matched almost exactly with preliminary results from an election audit in Texas.

Stats By County

Seth Keshel County Trends for Texas

Seth Keshel County Trends for Texas


County Party Leanings

The following map shows the party leanings of each Texas county, first from the “official” certified results:

Seth Keshel Texas County Party Leanings - Democrat vs Republican

And now adjusted with Seth’s analysis and heat map:

Seth Keshel Texas County Party Leanings - Democrat vs Republican

Source: Telegram Post, Dec 19, 2021

Top 100 Worst Counties

Seth has listed Texas’s Bexar, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Harris, Tarrant, and Travis counties as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.

Seth’s Presentation to Tarrant County

Here is the complete presentation from July 29, 2021 in Dallas/Fort Worth. National focus followed by Texas focus, followed by action items for believers.

GOP Nominee Vote Growth

Seth Keshel County Trends for Texas

I enjoyed this slide the other day - I hadn’t made it until I was thinking of a more effective way to present Trump’s Texas performance.

Everyone knows about the trend with the Hispanic working class, with El Paso, West Texas, South Texas all trending heavily Republican, some counties more than 30%.

As an analyst, validity must be given to the final outcome - if real, then a 5.6% statewide margin and the closest popular vote finish in 24 years has to come from somewhere.

The TX GOP has been upheld by the suburban counties being heavily Republican. So did Trump lose the white vote? THIS IS PERCENTAGE OF VOTES GAINED OVER PREVIOUS ELECTION.

You tell me - here are the two RINOs after Bush (who won TX by a mile), Trump 1.0 with his Cruz grudge in 2016 (9% win)… and now Trump 2020, in major GOP suburbs/counties.”


Some people asked for more clarity on this forwarded post/graphic. Happy to oblige.

With Trump’s known improvements with Hispanics in TX, including in major metros, the only possible way for the margin to tighten by 3.5% from 2016, and to have the popular vote win shrink by 200,000, is to get clobbered in the suburbs.

This graphic shows GOP nominee vote growth % from previous election. RINOs McCain and Romney are either down, flat, or modestly gaining in population boom counties in 2008-12 and Trump had a third party throwaway/Cruz grudge problem in 2016.

Look at the final column to see the Trump % vote gain and see how impossible it is for Democrats to eat up so much ground in the suburbs.

“But they’re growing!”

They have been large for a long time, and have been growing for decades, with no sudden Democrat boom to counter an historic GOP vote gain boom.

Make sense? See below forwarded message.”


Tarrant County

When the Presidential Election is the Odd One Out

Here is a comparison of 27 election races in Tarrant County, Texas. When every other election swung to Republicans, how likely is it that the 2020 Presidential election should be the only one to turn blue?

Source: and here

Tarrant Precinct Heat Map

The following PDF shows a map of which precincts in the county had the most abnormal results in 2020:

Dallas Fort Worth Counties Combined

Bastrop County

Bell County

Bexar County

Cameron County

Collin County

Dallas County

Denton County

Ellis County

El Paso County

Fort Bend County

Gillespie County

Harris County

Hays County

Henderson County

Hidalgo County

Lubbock County

Source: Telegram Post, Oct 26, 2021

Nueces County

Parker County

Randall County

Tom Green County

Travis County

Williamson County

Our team here at has also analyzed some additional stats for Williamson County, being discussed in our Gitlab discussion area:

View the draft report

Wichita County

Seth calls it the biggest layup in the state for spotting excess Biden votes, and explains why with 32 years of information.

Source: Telegram Post, Sep 7, 2021

The Texas Sponge Map

Possible Voter Roll Manipulation

A number of states, both key competitive states, and not, have machined/trimmed/manipulated their voter rolls for the desired outcomes. See New Hampshire, Alaska, California, and Arizona.

There are other states with bloated rolls, like Florida and Texas. Colorado doesn’t show much movement in the two parties but tons of new registered indies/others, along with Washington and Oregon. Pennsylvania and North Carolina appear to have let their party rolls run clean, showing a tremendous beating getting ready to be done by Trump, but pulled things off differently.



Why Are Audits So Important In Texas?

Seth explains on Bannon’s War Room, Sep 13, 2021:

He also provided an update on the so-called “full forensic audits” in Dallas, Harris, Collin and Tarrant Counties. According to Seth “those audits don’t ‘cut the mustard’ … Don’t get too excited about them.” He also announces that he’s decided not to run for office in Texas:

Source: Telegram post, Sep 30, 2021

Here’s the link to the OAN interview with Steve Toth that Seth referred to in the above video.

Preliminary Texas Audit Results

Seth’s original prediction of 675,000 excess votes was further validated in Jan 2022 with the release of preliminary audit findings in Texas:

Events & Presentations

Sat Feb 26, 2022

Seth Keshel

Midland, Texas More info
Sat Feb 12, 2022

Professor David Clements, Dr. Doug Frank, Seth Keshel, and Jarrin Jackson

Austin, Texas More info
Mon Dec 13, 2021

Seth Keshel

San Antonio/Kerrville Hill Country, Texas More info
Tue Dec 7, 2021

Seth Keshel

Houston, Texas More info
Sun Nov 14, 2021

Gen. Michael Flynn, Dr. Douglas Frank, Seth Keshel, Professor David Clements, and Mike Lindell

Georgetown, Texas More info
Mon Oct 4, 2021

Seth Keshel and Honorable Weston Martinez

Fort Bend, Houston, Texas More info
Mon Sep 27, 2021

Seth Keshel and others

Fort Worth, Texas More info
Sat Sep 18, 2021

Seth Keshel, Dr. Douglas Frank, David Clements, and many others

Dallas, Texas More info
Sat Aug 28, 2021

Chairman of County Republican Party Public Forum

Williamson County
Wed Aug 25, 2021

Seth Keshel

Austin, Texas More info

Support the Audit

Texas - Support SB1



Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.

This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.

Raw Data

We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Texas so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.

Show Raw Data Links

Certified Election Results

The results are somewhat hidden and you need to click into one of the later elections, and then change the selected election in the top navigation bar. From Texas Secretary of State.

Voter Registration Rolls/Database

From Texas Secretary of State.

Cast Vote Records Ordros Analytics has collated a repository of Cast Vote Records (CVRs) which list everyone who voted in the Nov 2020 election. Only some counties in some states are represented, but the list is growing.
The New York Times 2020 Election Results Results for all states, with several maps and charts.
Data Explorer Tool Our own tool for inspecting the 2020 New York Times data, including the time-series data of how the counting progressed. Also provides download links for raw JSON or CSV data, including counts for every precinct and county.
US Election Atlas
Recommended when doing trend analysis, as shown on this page

Detailed results for 2020 and previous years. Some data is freely accessible on their website, while some, such as detailed historic results in CSV format, are purchasable for a fee.
This appears to be the source commonly used by Seth Keshel for his analysis, although we have not officially confirmed this.
2020 General Election Data & Research A broad collection of national stats, vote and registration counts, time-series data, voting machine information and manuals, PDF reports, and other research collated by citizen auditors.
Election Night Time-Series Data from Edison

Provides more detail than is available from the New York Times, and includes numerous interactive charts.
Download ZIP of Raw Data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell,
Weekly HAVV SSN Reports

Social Security Administration (SSA) Weekly Data for Help America Vote Verification (HAVV) Transactions by State.
Learn more about this data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell,

If you have additional sources of election data, please let us know via Telegram, Twitter or post a comment below to assist.

Response from Texas Officials

According to Seth (here), he has been in contact with Former Senator and Governor-candidate Don Huffines and Republican Party Chairman Allen West who have been willing to discuss Seth’s analysis and calls for audits.

Governor Greg Abbott has so far been unresponsive.

Other Reports

Further Updates

Get Involved

Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.

Learn more about Canvassing Volunteer in Your State

Election Audit Groups on Telegram

Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @ElectionHQ2024.

To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Texas, you can join the following groups on Telegram:

For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels. and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.

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