See also the main article on North Carolina, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.


Seth Keshel County Trend Map for North Carolina

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 2758775 (49.93%) 2684292 (48.59%) 81761 (1.48%)
Estimate of potential fraud 257000 (4.7%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
2758775 (52.4%) 2427292 (46.1%) 81761 (1.6%)

North Carolina drifted another 4% toward Republican registration, but mysteriously, Trump gained a massive 396,000 votes, while Biden gained 495,000 votes, with two previous elections showing 35k (2012) and 11k (2016) vote gains as state moved right.

My estimates suggest minimum of 257k excess Biden votes, slightly more than Roy Cooper’s margin of victory.

If accurate, Trump’s margin in NC would have been 6.3%, or 52.3% to 46.0%, which is in keeping with the registration trend of the past two decades.

Best targets for audits: Johnston, Union, Iredell, New Hanover, Lincoln, Onslow, Brunswick, Gaston

Seth Keshel County Trends for North Carolina


Top 100 Worst Counties

Seth has listed North Carolina’s Brunswick, Mecklenburg, New Hanover, and Wake counties as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.

Stats By County

Seth Keshel County Trends for North Carolina

Seth Keshel County Trends for North Carolina


Brunswick & New Hanover Counties

One on one with Seth Keshel as he answers questions specific to Brunswick County and New Hanover County:

Henderson County

Here’s the attached video:

Following Seth’s post we’ve also done some of our own analysis on Henderson County, NC.

View the draft report

Wake County

The following PDF shows a map of which precincts in the county had the most abnormal results in 2020:

Down Ballot Races

Precinct-Level Data

Seth has produced detailed precinct-level heat maps for several dozen counties in other states but has found it difficult to do so for North and South Carolina:

Possible Voter Roll Manipulation

A number of states, both key competitive states, and not, have machined/trimmed/manipulated their voter rolls for the desired outcomes. See New Hampshire, Alaska, California, and Arizona.

There are other states with bloated rolls, like Florida and Texas. Colorado doesn’t show much movement in the two parties but tons of new registered indies/others, along with Washington and Oregon. Pennsylvania and North Carolina appear to have let their party rolls run clean, showing a tremendous beating getting ready to be done by Trump, but pulled things off differently.



Events & Presentations

Mon Nov 22, 2021

Seth Keshel

Wilmington, North Carolina More info
Sun Nov 21, 2021

Seth Keshel and Trevor Loudon

Greensboro, North Carolina More info
Fri Sep 17, 2021

Seth Keshel and David Clements

High Point, North Carolina More info
Thu Sep 16, 2021

Seth Keshel

Raleigh, North Carolina More info
Wed Sep 15, 2021

Seth Keshel

Charlotte, North Carolina More info
Tue Sep 7, 2021

Seth Keshel, Dr. Douglas Frank, and David Clements

Cary, North Carolina More info


Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.

Raw Data

We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for North Carolina so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.

Show Raw Data Links

Certified Election Results

From NC State Board of Elections.

Voter Registration Rolls/Database

From NC State Board of Elections.

Cast Vote Records Ordros Analytics has collated a repository of Cast Vote Records (CVRs) which list everyone who voted in the Nov 2020 election. Only some counties in some states are represented, but the list is growing.
The New York Times 2020 Election Results Results for all states, with several maps and charts.
Data Explorer Tool Our own tool for inspecting the 2020 New York Times data, including the time-series data of how the counting progressed. Also provides download links for raw JSON or CSV data, including counts for every precinct and county.
US Election Atlas
Recommended when doing trend analysis, as shown on this page

Detailed results for 2020 and previous years. Some data is freely accessible on their website, while some, such as detailed historic results in CSV format, are purchasable for a fee.
This appears to be the source commonly used by Seth Keshel for his analysis, although we have not officially confirmed this.
2020 General Election Data & Research A broad collection of national stats, vote and registration counts, time-series data, voting machine information and manuals, PDF reports, and other research collated by citizen auditors.
Election Night Time-Series Data from Edison

Provides more detail than is available from the New York Times, and includes numerous interactive charts.
Download ZIP of Raw Data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell,
Weekly HAVV SSN Reports

Social Security Administration (SSA) Weekly Data for Help America Vote Verification (HAVV) Transactions by State.
Learn more about this data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell,

If you have additional sources of election data, please let us know via Telegram, Twitter or post a comment below to assist.

Get Involved

Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.

Learn more about Canvassing Volunteer in Your State

Election Audit Groups on Telegram

Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @RealSKeshel.

To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in North Carolina, you can join the following groups on Telegram:

For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels. and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.

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