See also the main article on New Mexico, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.

Seth Keshel County Trend Map for New Mexico

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 401894 (43.5%) 501614 (54.3%) 20323 (2.2%)
Estimate of potential fraud 84000 (9.1%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
401894 (47.9%) 417614 (49.7%) 20323 (2.4%)

The first thing “off” about New Mexico is that it bucked the statewide registration trend predictor. Democrats are going out of business here as well in most counties except Bernalillo (Albuquerque; voter roll is down there by over 3k), Dona Ana, and Santa Fe. Trump GOP cut 1.6% off Democrat registration advantage, which is several points smaller than when Bush won New Mexico in ‘04 (the last time it went Republican).

New Mexico provides party registration information so it is easy to see how trends progress over decades. Albuquerque did trend 2 points Democrat but voter rolls are shrinking. Dona Ana almost always trends with El Paso (8.7 points more red) counties (1984 exception) but went more blue than last time.

Some GOP counties have obvious shaving going on, especially San Juan and Valencia. There appears to be a coordinated harvesting/fraud effort going on, mostly in the north.

Areas adjacent to the Texas Panhandle went highly Republican.

We need forensic audits in at least 8 counties. I had New Mexico tilt to Biden. A Trump upset is possible.

Strategic audit targets: San Juan and Valencia counties.

Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/12

Stats By County

Seth Keshel County Trends for New Mexico

Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/12

Top 100 Worst Counties

Seth has listed New Mexico’s Bernalillo County as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.

Otero County

County-Level Breakdowns

We’ve analyzed some additional stats for counties in New Mexico, including Union, Catron, Quay and Sierra, which are being discussed in our Gitlab discussion area:

View the draft report

Further Analysis on New Mexico

This video, featuring Seth Keshel, discusses New Mexico, starting at 25min mark.

Methodology

Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.

Raw Data

We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for New Mexico so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.

Show Raw Data Links

Certified Election Results
Currently unknown

In most states, the certified election results are available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website for details. States are also required by HAVA law to inform the public of how many absentee ballots were both sent and received to uniformed services and overseas voters.
Voter Registration Rolls/Database
Currently unknown

In some states, these are freely available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website. In other states, voter rolls must be purchased and/or accessed via a signed legal agreement. Some officials are also obstructing access to the rolls, to make auditing difficult. Let us know via Telegram or via the comment section below if you experience issues.
Cast Vote Records Ordros Analytics has collated a repository of Cast Vote Records (CVRs) which list everyone who voted in the Nov 2020 election. Only some counties in some states are represented, but the list is growing.
The New York Times 2020 Election Results Results for all states, with several maps and charts.
Data Explorer Tool Our own tool for inspecting the 2020 New York Times data, including the time-series data of how the counting progressed. Also provides download links for raw JSON or CSV data, including counts for every precinct and county.
US Election Atlas
Recommended when doing trend analysis, as shown on this page

Detailed results for 2020 and previous years. Some data is freely accessible on their website, while some, such as detailed historic results in CSV format, are purchasable for a fee.
This appears to be the source commonly used by Seth Keshel for his analysis, although we have not officially confirmed this.

Additional Misc New Mexico Data

A collection of other datasets and reports, collated for the purpose of auditing the election results.

2020 General Election Data & Research A broad collection of national stats, vote and registration counts, time-series data, voting machine information and manuals, PDF reports, and other research collated by citizen auditors.
Election Night Time-Series Data from Edison
Unverified

Provides more detail than is available from the New York Times, and includes numerous interactive charts.
Download ZIP of Raw Data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell, MagaRaccoon.com
Weekly HAVV SSN Reports
Unverified

Social Security Administration (SSA) Weekly Data for Help America Vote Verification (HAVV) Transactions by State.
Learn more about this data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell, MagaRaccoon.com

If you have additional sources of election data, please let us know via Telegram, Twitter or post a comment below to assist.

Get Involved

Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.

Learn more about Canvassing Volunteer in Your State

Election Audit Groups on Telegram

Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @RealSKeshel.

To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in New Mexico, you can join the following groups on Telegram:

For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.

ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.

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