See also the main article on Alabama, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.

Seth Keshel County Trend Map for Alabama

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Seth Keshel County Trends for Alabama

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 1441170 (62.0%) 849624 (36.6%) 32499 (1.4%)
Estimate of potential fraud 32000 (1.4%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
1441170 (62.9%) 817624 (35.7%) 32499 (1.4%)

Alabamians, as well as the millions of bandwagon Tide fans throughout the world, will value this information.

Alabama trends pretty decently, including in Jefferson, Mobile, and Tuscaloosa counties.

However, Madison County is your prime audit candidate. 13% growth in past decade, so I forecast both to gain, even though Democrats have gone 64k-62k-63k since Obama 08. This year, Biden pulled a 2x double vote gain up to 87k; this sort of thing can happen if the other party tanks, but Trump gained 13k, which is the most in the current turnout model (2004-present) and just 2k short of Bush’s gain from 2000 (low turnout to 2004). Madison is at least 12k heavy, if not much more (this still affords the record vote gain for Dem).

Biden appears to be 32k heavy statewide.

If Biden is 32k heavy, Trump would be 62.9% to 35.7%, or 591k.

Most in need of audits – Madison, Shelby, Baldwin, Lee



Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.

Raw Data

We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Alabama so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.

Show Raw Data Links

Get Involved

Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.

Learn more about Canvassing Volunteer in Your State

Election Audit Groups on Telegram

To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Alabama, you can join the following groups on Telegram:

For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels. and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.

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