See also the main article on California, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.

Seth Keshel County Trend Map for California

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Seth Keshel County Trends for California

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 6006429 (34.3%) 11110250 (63.5%) 384922 (2.2%)
Estimate of potential fraud 1346000 (7.7%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
6006429 (37.2%) 9764250 (60.4%) 384922 (2.4%)

First takeaway on California – although California trended Democrat in registrations by 2%, Trump pushed it slightly right even in certified totals. This is only done with winning low-propensity voters, registered Democrats, independents, especially working class Hispanics in Southern California.

Trump gained 1,520,000 votes, 580k more than record Republican gain, but Democrats have DOUBLED their vote total since 2000, with Biden nearly 3 million over Obama in 2008.

These are worst counties for excess Biden votes as predicted by party ID, population growth, and registration:

Alameda 50k
Contra Costa 50k
Fresno 30k
Kern 20k
L.A. 500k
Orange 100k
Riverside 80k
San Bernardino 40k
San Diego 80k
Santa Clara 60k
Ventura 25k

Proportionally, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego absolutely dwarf other counties for new registered voters. Are these phantom factories? Est. 1,346,000 excess Biden votes, would put state at 23.3% margin if only excess votes considered. I believe California to be much tighter.

Best audit targets: Kern, Shasta, Placer.


Top 100 Worst Counties

Seth has listed California’s Fresno, Kern, Orange, and San Bernardino counties as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.

San Diego County

Possible Voter Roll Manipulation

A number of states, both key competitive states, and not, have machined/trimmed/manipulated their voter rolls for the desired outcomes. Here are some examples:

CALIFORNIA – San Francisco didn’t seem to care much, expanding the rolls by just 9,000 voters (1.8%); but Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego were all about this election, with between 215k to 297k net new registered voters.

Previous highs since 2008:

Orange: 75k
Riverside: 106k
San Bernardino: 36k
San Diego: 90k

A deeper look into California has me questioning my own assessment of the state, as Trump improved tremendously in most of the major counties in the state, especially San Diego, LA, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino. California, as you know, is vital for the national popular vote propaganda piece for Democrats, and somehow manages to turn everything around it blue and still double its own Democrat votes in two decades with a now stagnant population growth. Can’t be both.


Seth’s View on Recall Election Results

Events & Presentations

Mon Oct 18, 2021

Seth Keshel

Whittier, Los Angeles, California More info

Further Updates


Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.

This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.

Raw Data

We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for California so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.

Show Raw Data Links

Certified Election Results
Currently unknown

In most states, the certified election results are available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website for details. States are also required by HAVA law to inform the public of how many absentee ballots were both sent and received to uniformed services and overseas voters.
Voter Registration Rolls/Database
Currently unknown

In some states, these are freely available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website. In other states, voter rolls must be purchased and/or accessed via a signed legal agreement. Some officials are also obstructing access to the rolls, to make auditing difficult. Let us know via Telegram or via the comment section below if you experience issues.
Cast Vote Records Ordros Analytics has collated a repository of Cast Vote Records (CVRs) which list everyone who voted in the Nov 2020 election. Only some counties in some states are represented, but the list is growing.
The New York Times 2020 Election Results Results for all states, with several maps and charts.
Data Explorer Tool Our own tool for inspecting the 2020 New York Times data, including the time-series data of how the counting progressed. Also provides download links for raw JSON or CSV data, including counts for every precinct and county.
US Election Atlas
Recommended when doing trend analysis, as shown on this page

Detailed results for 2020 and previous years. Some data is freely accessible on their website, while some, such as detailed historic results in CSV format, are purchasable for a fee.
This appears to be the source commonly used by Seth Keshel for his analysis, although we have not officially confirmed this.
2020 General Election Data & Research A broad collection of national stats, vote and registration counts, time-series data, voting machine information and manuals, PDF reports, and other research collated by citizen auditors.
Election Night Time-Series Data from Edison

Provides more detail than is available from the New York Times, and includes numerous interactive charts.
Download ZIP of Raw Data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell,
Weekly HAVV SSN Reports

Social Security Administration (SSA) Weekly Data for Help America Vote Verification (HAVV) Transactions by State.
Learn more about this data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell,

If you have additional sources of election data, please let us know via Telegram, Twitter or post a comment below to assist.

Other Reports

Get Involved

Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.

Learn more about Canvassing Volunteer in Your State

Election Audit Groups on Telegram

Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @RealSKeshel.

To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in California, you can join the following groups on Telegram:

For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels. and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.

Visitor Comments

Show Comments