See also the main article on Arizona, for documented election integrity issues, further reports, and updates on the Forensic Audit.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.

Contents

Seth Keshel County Trend Map for Arizona

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 1661686 (49.1%) 1672143 (49.4%) 50774 (1.5%)
Estimate of potential fraud 210000 (6.2%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
1661686 (52.3%) 1462143 (46.1%) 50774 (1.6%)

Summary

  • No GOP candidate has ever exploded in votes like Trump in Arizona with a gain of 410,000 in a state that has been blue just once since 1948.

  • Trump set a GOP record in gaining of 248,000 new votes in Maricopa County, and yet still lost it (first Republican loss since 1972).

  • Biden gained a massive 511,000 votes in one election cycle, which blows away the previous record when Kerry added 209,000 in the first election of the higher turnout era in 2004, and yet Biden only won by 10,500 votes, which suggests they knew exactly how many votes they needed to dump into the mix to win

Red Obviously Ugly 2 counties
Yellow Suspect/Likely Fraud 4 counties
Green Clean 9 counties

Estimates for excess (potentially fraudulent) Biden votes based on population growth and new party registration data:

Maricopa 175k
Pima 35k

If Biden is 220,000 votes heavy in Arizona, counting only excess votes, Trump would have carried the state 52.4% to 45.8%, for a margin of 6.6%, which aligns with a Baris poll about 2 weeks before the election.

Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/10

Top 100 Worst Counties

Seth has listed Arizona’s Maricopa and Pima counties as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.

Vote Surge in 2020

The following chart shows the surge in votes for Donald Trump in Arizona in 2020.

If election forecasting were a game of Blackjack, and the dealer had his one card face up, and that card was showing 409,000 more Trump votes than in 2016, and you saw a graph like this showing the GOP flat but still winning Arizona in every election of the high-turnout era (2004 to present)…

How much money would you have bet on Trump holding Arizona?

Remember that Obama gained 141k votes and Clinton gained 136k.

What would you expect Biden’s result to be?

Source: Telegram Post

Maricopa County

View Seth’s Maricopa County Report

See also: Maricopa Forensic Audit Results for a summary of the Cyber Ninjas forensic audit, including video presentations and links to the complete reports.

Pima County

View Seth’s Pima County Report

Cochise County

Cochise County, AZ is home to Fort Huachuca - an Army Intel Center and my former 2x duty station.

Here is an example of a county that is 4-5k heavy in Biden votes, potentially half the “margin” in AZ.

Source: Telegram Post, Aug 10, 2021

Gila County

Yavapai County

Further County Breakdowns

We’ve also analyzed some additional stats for counties in Arizona, being discussed in our Gitlab discussion area:

View the draft report

Video Updates on Arizona

Seth’s presentation on Arizona, with some specifics on Pima County, AZ:

Interview on Bannon’s War Room:

If anyone is able to assist with a written or dot-point summary of the above videos, we’d love to add those to this page. Connect on Telegram or Gitlab if you can assist.

Possible Voter Roll Manipulation

A number of states – both key competitive states and not – have machined/trimmed/manipulated their voter rolls for the desired outcomes. Here are some examples:

ARIZONA

Maricopa County 2004-08 +179k (+64k D, +16k R)
  2008-12 +87k (-34k D, - 6k R)
  2012-16 +344k (+108k D, +86k R)
  2016-20 +433k (+196k D, +148k R)
Pima County 2004-08 +49k (+21k D, +10k R)
  2008-12 -1k (-13k D, -4k R)
  2012-16 +48k (+21k D, +9k R)
  2016-20 +96k (+52k D, +22k R)

Katie Hobbs is almost certainly stuffing voter rolls with phantoms, not just with Maricopa, but Pima, too. Arizona needs to do a thorough canvassing – we have a historically red state with historic Republican gains in registration, that has been growing a lot for decades, with numbers this lopsided. Maricopa looks like it may have also been manipulated in 2016.

Source: https://t.me/RealSKeshel/788

Methodology

Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.

Raw Data

We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Arizona so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.

Show Raw Data Links

Certified Election Results

From Arizona Secretary of State

Voter Registration Rolls/Database
Currently unknown

In some states, these are freely available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website. In other states, voter rolls must be purchased and/or accessed via a signed legal agreement. Some officials are also obstructing access to the rolls, to make auditing difficult. Let us know via Telegram or via the comment section below if you experience issues.
Cast Vote Records Ordros Analytics has collated a repository of Cast Vote Records (CVRs) which list everyone who voted in the Nov 2020 election. Only some counties in some states are represented, but the list is growing.
The New York Times 2020 Election Results Results for all states, with several maps and charts.
Data Explorer Tool Our own tool for inspecting the 2020 New York Times data, including the time-series data of how the counting progressed. Also provides download links for raw JSON or CSV data, including counts for every precinct and county.
US Election Atlas
Recommended when doing trend analysis, as shown on this page

Detailed results for 2020 and previous years. Some data is freely accessible on their website, while some, such as detailed historic results in CSV format, are purchasable for a fee.
This appears to be the source commonly used by Seth Keshel for his analysis, although we have not officially confirmed this.

Voter Registration Statistics

From Arizona Secretary of State

2020 General Election Data & Research A broad collection of national stats, vote and registration counts, time-series data, voting machine information and manuals, PDF reports, and other research collated by citizen auditors.
Election Night Time-Series Data from Edison
Unverified

Provides more detail than is available from the New York Times, and includes numerous interactive charts.
Download ZIP of Raw Data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell, MagaRaccoon.com
Weekly HAVV SSN Reports
Unverified

Social Security Administration (SSA) Weekly Data for Help America Vote Verification (HAVV) Transactions by State.
Learn more about this data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell, MagaRaccoon.com

If you have additional sources of election data, please let us know via Telegram, Twitter or post a comment below to assist.

Other Reports

Get Involved

Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.

Learn more about Canvassing Volunteer in Your State

Election Audit Groups on Telegram

Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @RealSKeshel.

To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Arizona, you can join the following groups on Telegram:

For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.

ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.

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