See also the main article on Arizona, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.


Seth Keshel County Trend Map for Arizona

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 1661686 (49.1%) 1672143 (49.4%) 50774 (1.5%)
Estimate of potential fraud 210000 (6.2%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
1661686 (52.3%) 1462143 (46.1%) 50774 (1.6%)


  • No GOP candidate has ever exploded in votes like Trump in Arizona with a gain of 410,000 in a state that has been blue just once since 1948.

  • Trump set a GOP record in gaining of 248,000 new votes in Maricopa County, and yet still lost it (first Republican loss since 1972).

  • Biden gained a massive 511,000 votes in one election cycle, which blows away the previous record when Kerry added 209,000 in the first election of the higher turnout era in 2004, and yet Biden only won by 10,500 votes, which suggests they knew exactly how many votes they needed to dump into the mix to win

Red Obviously Ugly 2 counties
Yellow Suspect/Likely Fraud 4 counties
Green Clean 9 counties

Estimates for excess (potentially fraudulent) Biden votes based on population growth and new party registration data:

Maricopa 175k
Pima 35k

If Biden is 220,000 votes heavy in Arizona, counting only excess votes, Trump would have carried the state 52.4% to 45.8%, for a margin of 6.6%, which aligns with a Baris poll about 2 weeks before the election.


Maricopa County

See the following chart for more alarming figures – I’ve already done a lot of research here. Could Biden have really increased the Democrat votes by a whopping 48.07% over a single election cycle? Maricopa County is highly suspect.

Seth Keshel County Trends for Arizona

This tells you the tale of the tape in Maricopa County.

Orange, San Diego, Harris, King, and Miami-Dade Counties are the only 5 counties within 100,000 Democrat votes of the total in Maricopa County (703k) in 2016. This is how each of them grew. Miami-Dade was thrown out because they had a drop-off in Democrat votes thanks to the Trump gain.

The rest of it speaks for itself.

Sound possible?

Source: and

Cochise County

Cochise County, AZ is home to Fort Huachuca - an Army Intel Center and my former 2x duty station.

Here is an example of a county that is 4-5k heavy in Biden votes, potentially half the “margin” in AZ.

Source: Telegram Post, Aug 10, 2021

Further County Breakdowns

We’ve also analyzed some additional stats for counties in Arizona, being discussed in our Gitlab discussion area:

View the draft report

Video Updates on Arizona

If anyone is able to assist with a written or dot-point summary of the above videos, we’d love to add those to this page. Connect on Telegram or Gitlab if you can assist.

Possible Voter Roll Manipulation

A number of states – both key competitive states and not – have machined/trimmed/manipulated their voter rolls for the desired outcomes. Here are some examples:


Maricopa County 2004-08 +179k (+64k D, +16k R)
  2008-12 +87k (-34k D, - 6k R)
  2012-16 +344k (+108k D, +86k R)
  2016-20 +433k (+196k D, +148k R)
Pima County 2004-08 +49k (+21k D, +10k R)
  2008-12 -1k (-13k D, -4k R)
  2012-16 +48k (+21k D, +9k R)
  2016-20 +96k (+52k D, +22k R)

Katie Hobbs is almost certainly stuffing voter rolls with phantoms, not just with Maricopa, but Pima, too. Arizona needs to do a thorough canvassing – we have a historically red state with historic Republican gains in registration, that has been growing a lot for decades, with numbers this lopsided. Maricopa looks like it may have also been manipulated in 2016.


Raw Data

Election and voter registration data can be obtained from the Arizona Secretary of State via these links:

The detailed historical spreadsheets that Seth sometimes uses appear to be the ones from, although we have not officially confirmed this. On that website, the detailed data in CSV format is purchasable for a fee, while some aspects are browsable on the website.

Other Reports

Arizona Audit Discussion Channel

@AZAuditChat   on the Telegram app

Or you may find additional groups and channels in our detailed list of Telegram Channels, grouped by state.

Note: has no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels.

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