See also the main article on Minnesota, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.


Seth Keshel County Trend Map for Minnesota

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 1484065 (45.28%) 1717077 (52.40%) 76023 (2.32%)
Estimate of potential fraud 228000 (7.0%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
1484065 (48.7%) 1489077 (48.8%) 76023 (2.5%)

Trump is up 161k votes from 2016 as the state nearly dropped into the GOP column, but Biden is up 349k after two consecutive elections of fewer votes, including Clinton down 178k from Obama’s re-election. They will gain votes in 2020 thanks to third parties returning.

Fair share of green counties here, but there are a ton of rural, tiny counties with little play in numbers. Hennepin is a cesspool, and Ramsey a smaller version. Biden is 2x Obama’s high turnout era record gain, plus another 30k. I’ve afforded him Obama ’08 gain plus 25%, same as Ramsey, almost certainly high.

If Biden is 228k heavy, Trump would be within 5k votes, at 0.1% margin. I suspect I’m way light on Hennepin, and believe this was a 1-3 point Trump state. Ellison told you at 4 PM on 11/3 he didn’t have the votes.

Best targets for audits: Anoka (12k), Carver (8k), Scott (9k), Wright 10k


Top 100 Worst Counties

Seth has listed Minnesota’s Anoka, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Saint Louis, and Wright counties as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.

Stats By County

Seth Keshel County Trends for Minnesota

Seth Keshel County Trends for Minnesota


Further Points

  • Minnesota resembles Wisconsin; Pennsylvania/Michigan resemble each other. Third party vote very swingy coming back to two parties in Minnesota.

  • I have Trump down to the wire here, with Biden well over what I would call 200k excess expected votes.

  • I have been generous to Biden, allowing 125% of Obama’s historic high turnout era (2004-present) gains in Hennepin and Ramsey.

  • St. Louis County is way too high for Biden under recent trends, enough for local Dem mayors to endorse Trump in Iron Range.

  • AG Ellison tweeted late in afternoon of 11/3 they didn’t have the votes to win the state, just before they won the Obama-Romney race margin, after Trump spent big time there and campaigned?

  • Wisconsin and Minnesota were 7-8% Obama states in 2012 and Minnesota 2.3% left of Wisconsin in 2016. I have Wisconsin to Trump at 3.7%. I’m sure I’m light in Twin Cities and would expect it to tilt to Trump up to as much as 2.5%.

  • Lewis won the Senate seat with numbers like this.


Charting the Abnormal Trend

Crow Wing County

The following video contains Seth’s presentation in Brainerd, Crow Wing County, Dec 9, 2021. Full event runtime: 3hrs 42min.

Watch on Rumble

Download Seth’s Presentation Slides

The following PDF shows a map of which precincts in the county had the most abnormal results in 2020:

Wright County

Here is Seth’s Presentation in Monticello, Wright County, Feb 22, 2022. Seth begins at 6min 15sec mark. Full runtime: 3hrs 5min.

Watch on Rumble

Additional Reports and Updates

Events & Presentations

Tue Feb 22, 2022

Seth Keshel

Monticello, Wright County, Minnesota More info
Tue Nov 9, 2021

Seth Keshel

Brainerd, Minnesota More info


Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.

Raw Data

We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Minnesota so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.

Show Raw Data Links

Certified Election Results
Currently unknown

In most states, the certified election results are available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website for details. States are also required by HAVA law to inform the public of how many absentee ballots were both sent and received to uniformed services and overseas voters.
Voter Registration Rolls/Database
Currently unknown

In some states, these are freely available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website. In other states, voter rolls must be purchased and/or accessed via a signed legal agreement. Some officials are also obstructing access to the rolls, to make auditing difficult. Let us know via Telegram or via the comment section below if you experience issues.
Cast Vote Records Ordros Analytics has collated a repository of Cast Vote Records (CVRs) which list everyone who voted in the Nov 2020 election. Only some counties in some states are represented, but the list is growing.
The New York Times 2020 Election Results Results for all states, with several maps and charts.
Data Explorer Tool Our own tool for inspecting the 2020 New York Times data, including the time-series data of how the counting progressed. Also provides download links for raw JSON or CSV data, including counts for every precinct and county.
US Election Atlas
Recommended when doing trend analysis, as shown on this page

Detailed results for 2020 and previous years. Some data is freely accessible on their website, while some, such as detailed historic results in CSV format, are purchasable for a fee.
This appears to be the source commonly used by Seth Keshel for his analysis, although we have not officially confirmed this.
2020 General Election Data & Research A broad collection of national stats, vote and registration counts, time-series data, voting machine information and manuals, PDF reports, and other research collated by citizen auditors.
Election Night Time-Series Data from Edison

Provides more detail than is available from the New York Times, and includes numerous interactive charts.
Download ZIP of Raw Data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell,
Weekly HAVV SSN Reports

Social Security Administration (SSA) Weekly Data for Help America Vote Verification (HAVV) Transactions by State.
Learn more about this data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell,

If you have additional sources of election data, please let us know via Telegram, Twitter or post a comment below to assist.

Other Reports

A team of scientists from produced the following reports:

Get Involved

Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.

Learn more about Canvassing Volunteer in Your State

Election Audit Groups on Telegram

Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @RealSKeshel.

To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Minnesota, you can join the following groups on Telegram:

For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels. and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.

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