See also the main article on Arkansas, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.

Seth Keshel County Trend Map for Arkansas

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Seth Keshel County Trends for Arkansas

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 760647 (62.4%) 423932 (34.8%) 34109 (2.8%)
Estimate of potential fraud 8000 (0.7%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
760647 (62.8%) 415932 (34.4%) 34109 (2.8%)

Arkansas nearly joined Iowa with perfect green counties. I have tagged Benton (5k) and Washington (3k) as the only viable audit targets in Arkansas. Both have tremendous growth, but also did in 2000-10 timeframe without the sharp increases in votes. Democrats are up 50% in Benton, which a vote gain should be expected, but 5k is the previous high, and now we have a gain of 14k – in the face of a massive record GOP vote gain. It is certainly not rampant, and I’m still affording Biden a double previous vote gain in this county.

Washington, same dynamics, just a smaller county. Pulaski (Little Rock) trended clean. This doesn’t mean it is clean, but the trends don’t provide a mandate for an audit.

Overall, as seen in Iowa, a modest 10% Biden vote gain, mainly returning third party throwaways and accounting for higher turnout. Arkansas looks good.

Best Trump county audit targets – Benton, Washington



Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.

Raw Data

We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Arkansas so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.

Show Raw Data Links

Get Involved

Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.

Learn more about Canvassing Volunteer in Your State

Election Audit Groups on Telegram

To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Arkansas, you can join the following groups on Telegram:

For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels. and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.

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