See also the main article on Oregon, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.

Contents

Seth Keshel County Trend Map for Oregon

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 958448 (40.37%) 1340383 (56.45%) 75508 (3.18%)
Estimate of potential fraud 217000 (9.1%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
958448 (44.4%) 1123383 (52.1%) 75508 (3.5%)

Oregon statewide moved slightly Republican in terms of party registration numbers — 30 out of 36 counties had more Republican party registrations than Democrat ones, since 2016. As such, we should have seen the Democrats have an even smaller winning margin than the 10.98% margin seen in 2016. But instead it jumped to over 16%! How did Trump lose another 5+ percentage points while gaining 176,000 votes from 4 years earlier?

I estimate that Biden has 162k more votes than would be reasonably expected, and that’s before even counting Multnomah! Here are the worst ones:

Clackamas 15k
Jackson 12k
Lane 20k
Marion 17k
Washington 31k
Multnomah 55k
Others… 67k
Total 217k

Biden was +84k in Multnomah after gains of +18k and -5k in last two elections. Estimate 55k there, for total of 217k excess. If correct, that give us an accurate election tally in that state with Biden’s margin at +7.6%. That’s only considering excess Biden votes in opposition to established registration trends.

The best targets for audits are Umatilla, Linn, Jackson, and Yamhill. Blue states had to be pushed back out to double digit margins to distract from Rust Belt operation.

Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/4

Stats By County

Seth Keshel County Trends for Oregon

Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/4

Top 100 Worst Counties

Seth has listed Oregon’s Jackson and Marion counties as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.

Jackson County

Linn County

Seth explains the registration vs vote trends since 2004 and why he estimates that Linn County has 8,000 more votes for Biden than seems rational:

Source: Telegram Post, Sep 13, 2021

Umatilla County

Seth explains how, with the aid of motor voter and mail-in voting, Biden is at least 3,000 votes higher than any reasonable forecast would allow for.

County Type: CRIMSON (Trump’s win was bigger than Romney’s win)

Source: Telegram post, Jan 14, 2022

Washington County

Possible Voter Roll Manipulation

A number of states, both key competitive states, and not, have machined/trimmed/manipulated their voter rolls for the desired outcomes. See New Hampshire, Alaska, California, and Arizona.

There are other states with bloated rolls, like Florida and Texas. Colorado doesn’t show much movement in the two parties but tons of new registered indies/others, along with Washington and Oregon. Pennsylvania and North Carolina appear to have let their party rolls run clean, showing a tremendous beating getting ready to be done by Trump, but pulled things off differently.

Phantoms.

Source: https://t.me/RealSKeshel/788

Unexpected Surge in Mail-In Ballots

Events & Presentations

DatePresenterLocationLink
Sat Sep 11, 2021

Seth Keshel

Oregon More info

Further Updates

  • Troy Smith, representing Kim Thatcher, Oregon State Representative, spoke at the Cyber Symposium (view video, starting around 2hr 55min mark) saying:

    • In Oregon, they are wanting to look into the concerns
    • Constitution says that state legislatures have their role in election, but it’s currently Democrat-controlled. We really need a “We the people” movement.
    • We need to open our eyes, be open-minded, but with healthy skepticism
    • He’s really thinking about the chain of custody and the vulnerabilities
    • The codes and PCAPs are over their heads, and it’s too hard to look into
    • The problem: they have to prove there was a murder before they can even get an investigation
    • It’s reasonable to have transparency

Methodology

Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.

Raw Data

We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Oregon so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.

Show Raw Data Links

Certified Election Results
Currently unknown

In most states, the certified election results are available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website for details. States are also required by HAVA law to inform the public of how many absentee ballots were both sent and received to uniformed services and overseas voters.
Voter Registration Rolls/Database
Currently unknown

In some states, these are freely available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website. In other states, voter rolls must be purchased and/or accessed via a signed legal agreement. Some officials are also obstructing access to the rolls, to make auditing difficult. Let us know via Telegram or via the comment section below if you experience issues.
Cast Vote Records Ordros Analytics has collated a repository of Cast Vote Records (CVRs) which list everyone who voted in the Nov 2020 election. Only some counties in some states are represented, but the list is growing.
The New York Times 2020 Election Results Results for all states, with several maps and charts.
Data Explorer Tool Our own tool for inspecting the 2020 New York Times data, including the time-series data of how the counting progressed. Also provides download links for raw JSON or CSV data, including counts for every precinct and county.
US Election Atlas
Recommended when doing trend analysis, as shown on this page

Detailed results for 2020 and previous years. Some data is freely accessible on their website, while some, such as detailed historic results in CSV format, are purchasable for a fee.
This appears to be the source commonly used by Seth Keshel for his analysis, although we have not officially confirmed this.
2020 General Election Data & Research A broad collection of national stats, vote and registration counts, time-series data, voting machine information and manuals, PDF reports, and other research collated by citizen auditors.
Election Night Time-Series Data from Edison
Unverified

Provides more detail than is available from the New York Times, and includes numerous interactive charts.
Download ZIP of Raw Data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell, MagaRaccoon.com
Weekly HAVV SSN Reports
Unverified

Social Security Administration (SSA) Weekly Data for Help America Vote Verification (HAVV) Transactions by State.
Learn more about this data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell, MagaRaccoon.com

If you have additional sources of election data, please let us know via Telegram, Twitter or post a comment below to assist.

Get Involved

Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.

Learn more about Canvassing Volunteer in Your State

Election Audit Groups on Telegram

Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @RealSKeshel.

To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Oregon, you can join the following groups on Telegram:

For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.

ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.

Visitor Comments

Show Comments