See also the main article on Montana, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.

Seth Keshel County Trend Map for Montana

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Seth Keshel County Trends for Montana

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 343602 (56.92%) 244786 (40.55%) 15273 (2.53%)
Estimate of potential fraud 46000 (7.6%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
343602 (61.6%) 198786 (35.6%) 15273 (2.7%)

Trump added 64k votes in 4 years, a GOP record, but curiously, Biden, while losing by 16.4%, gained 67k votes as the state registered just 58k new voters.

I think target here was actually senate race which was an 11% race between Bullock and Daines; also a gubernatorial race. Keep in mind, there is a big scrap in Missoula County right now over about 6,000 ballots thought to be illegally cast.

Montana does not register by party, so using working class/population growth trends.

Red – Obviously Ugly (6 counties)
Yellow – Suspect/Likely Fraud (19 counties)
Green – Clean (31 counties)

Estimates for excess votes based on pop. growth/trends:

Cascade 3k
Flathead 5k
Gallatin 7k
Lewis and Clark 3k
Missoula 6k
Yellowstone 6k

I estimate 46k excess votes statewide. If accurate, and counting ONLY excess Biden vote growth, Trump should have won this state about 61.6% to 35.6%, or 26.0% - in other words, a shellacking that tracks accurately with the progression from 2012 to 2016.


The election fraud in Montana from 2020 is very easy to see in this trend graph.

Notice the opposing trends (how the lines move in opposing directions), something that is present since the high turnout era began in 2004.

Obama ran it tight in 2008 (lost by only 2.4%) and then the Republican/GOP trend picked up steam, with a 13.7% Romney win, 20.4% Trump win…

And then we see a GOP record vote gain of 64k this year… Only to be met with a record Democrat gain of 67k… after two consecutive elections of losing votes – in spite of population growth of 100k per decade.

This makes Montana one of the most fraudulent states in terms of percentage of fraudulent votes. My light estimate is 46k fraudulent votes, about 8% of all votes.

Source: Telegram post, Sep 22, 2021

Top 100 Worst Counties

Seth has listed Montana’s Yellowstone County as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.

Events & Presentations

Wed Sep 22, 2021

Seth Keshel, David Clements, and Dr. Douglas Frank

Missoula, Montana More info


Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.

Raw Data

We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Montana so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.

Show Raw Data Links

Certified Election Results
Currently unknown

In most states, the certified election results are available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website for details. States are also required by HAVA law to inform the public of how many absentee ballots were both sent and received to uniformed services and overseas voters.
Voter Registration Rolls/Database
Currently unknown

In some states, these are freely available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website. In other states, voter rolls must be purchased and/or accessed via a signed legal agreement. Some officials are also obstructing access to the rolls, to make auditing difficult. Let us know via Telegram or via the comment section below if you experience issues.
Cast Vote Records Ordros Analytics has collated a repository of Cast Vote Records (CVRs) which list everyone who voted in the Nov 2020 election. Only some counties in some states are represented, but the list is growing.
The New York Times 2020 Election Results Results for all states, with several maps and charts.
Data Explorer Tool Our own tool for inspecting the 2020 New York Times data, including the time-series data of how the counting progressed. Also provides download links for raw JSON or CSV data, including counts for every precinct and county.
US Election Atlas
Recommended when doing trend analysis, as shown on this page

Detailed results for 2020 and previous years. Some data is freely accessible on their website, while some, such as detailed historic results in CSV format, are purchasable for a fee.
This appears to be the source commonly used by Seth Keshel for his analysis, although we have not officially confirmed this.

Additional Misc Montana Data

A collection of other datasets and reports, collated for the purpose of auditing the election results.

2020 General Election Data & Research A broad collection of national stats, vote and registration counts, time-series data, voting machine information and manuals, PDF reports, and other research collated by citizen auditors.
Election Night Time-Series Data from Edison

Provides more detail than is available from the New York Times, and includes numerous interactive charts.
Download ZIP of Raw Data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell,
Weekly HAVV SSN Reports

Social Security Administration (SSA) Weekly Data for Help America Vote Verification (HAVV) Transactions by State.
Learn more about this data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell,

If you have additional sources of election data, please let us know via Telegram, Twitter or post a comment below to assist.

Get Involved

Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.

Learn more about Canvassing Volunteer in Your State

Election Audit Groups on Telegram

Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @RealSKeshel.

To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Montana, you can join the following groups on Telegram:

For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels. and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.

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