See also the main article on Virginia, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.

Seth Keshel County Trend Map for Virginia

Chart legend: Red = Rampant Fraud, Yellow = Likely/Suspect, Green = Clean

Seth Keshel County Trends for Virginia

Seth Keshel County Trends for Virginia

Seth Keshel County Trends for Virginia

Seth Keshel County Trends for Virginia

Trump votes Biden votes Other votes
Officially reported results 1962430 (44.0%) 2413568 (54.1%) 84765 (1.9%)
Estimate of potential fraud 217000 (4.9%)
Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
1962430 (46.2%) 2196568 (51.8%) 84765 (2.0%)

Estimating 217k excess votes on a lenient evaluation.

At face value, overwhelming NOVA support for Biden created an even bigger partisan gap, even as the south and southwest became stronger for Trump. Most of the excess votes were piled up 1-2k at a time throughout the southern and eastern portions of Virginia, with about 73k between Prince William, Loudon, and Fairfax (lenient estimates). The vote stoppage in Virginia creates suspicion as to whether the state was being prevented from flipping, or just given some buffer room.

If accurate, Trump’s margin of loss in Virginia would have been 5.6%, or 51.8% to 46.2%, a margin of 235k votes. If vote flipping is occurring, then the state could have been down to the wire.

Best targets for audits: Culpeper, Chesterfield, Fauquier, Frederick, York, Spotsylvania, Stafford Co.

Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/59


Top 100 Worst Counties

Seth has listed Virginia’s Chesterfield, Loudoun, and Spotsylvania counties as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.

Events & Presentations

DatePresenterLocationLink
Mon Sep 20, 2021

Seth Keshel

Richmond, Virginia More info

Methodology

Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.

Raw Data

We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Virginia so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.

Show Raw Data Links

Certified Election Results for Nov 2020

Voter Registration Rolls/Database

The Virginia Department of Elections (ELECT) provides, at a “reasonable cost” to qualified persons or entities, several different lists of those who voted and registered voters, including:

  • Registered Voters List (RVL) - a list of all registered voters in a specified jurisdiction, legislative district, election district or statewide.
  • List of Those Who Voted (LTWV) – a list of those persons who voted in a primary, special or general election in a specified jurisdiction, legislative, election district or statewide.
  • Newly Registered Voters List (NRV) – a list of those persons who registered on a selected date in a specified jurisdiction, legislative district, election district or statewide.
  • Monthly Update Subscription (MUS) – a listing of voter initiated record changes to include additions, changes and deletions of voter registration information but excluding all administrative changes (precinct and district changes) in a one month period in a specified jurisdiction, legislative district, election district or statewide.
  • Vote History List (VHL) – a list of those persons who voted in a primary, special or general election in a specified jurisdiction, legislative, election district or statewide over a four year time period.
  • Daily Absentee List (DAL) – a list of those persons who voted absentee in a primary, special or general election in a specified jurisdiction, legislative, election district or statewide.
Cast Vote Records Ordros Analytics has collated a repository of Cast Vote Records (CVRs) which list everyone who voted in the Nov 2020 election. Only some counties in some states are represented, but the list is growing.
The New York Times 2020 Election Results Results for all states, with several maps and charts.
Data Explorer Tool Our own tool for inspecting the 2020 New York Times data, including the time-series data of how the counting progressed. Also provides download links for raw JSON or CSV data, including counts for every precinct and county.
US Election Atlas
Recommended when doing trend analysis, as shown on this page

Detailed results for 2020 and previous years. Some data is freely accessible on their website, while some, such as detailed historic results in CSV format, are purchasable for a fee.
This appears to be the source commonly used by Seth Keshel for his analysis, although we have not officially confirmed this.

Historical Certified Election Results

For all Virginia elections from 2005 to present, in CSV format. From official website elections.virginia.gov.

Registration / Turnout Report

From official website elections.virginia.gov.

Additional Misc Virginia Data

A large collection of other datasets and reports, collated for the purpose of auditing the election results.

CSV-Registrations-2020-11-01

From official website elections.virginia.gov.

FOIA’s CSV

(Thanks to wwrkds.net)

Daily Absentee List (as of 2020-11-30)

(Thanks to wwrkds.net)

2020 General Election Data & Research A broad collection of national stats, vote and registration counts, time-series data, voting machine information and manuals, PDF reports, and other research collated by citizen auditors.
Election Night Time-Series Data from Edison
Unverified

Provides more detail than is available from the New York Times, and includes numerous interactive charts.
Download ZIP of Raw Data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell, MagaRaccoon.com
Weekly HAVV SSN Reports
Unverified

Social Security Administration (SSA) Weekly Data for Help America Vote Verification (HAVV) Transactions by State.
Learn more about this data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell, MagaRaccoon.com

If you have additional sources of election data, please let us know via Telegram, Twitter or post a comment below to assist.

Other Reports

A team of scientists from Election-Integrity.info produced the following reports:

Get Involved

Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.

Learn more about Canvassing Volunteer in Your State

Election Audit Groups on Telegram

Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @RealSKeshel.

To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Virginia, you can join the following groups on Telegram:

For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.

ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.

Visitor Comments

Show Comments