See also the main article on Florida, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
|Trump votes||Biden votes||Other votes|
|Officially reported results||5668731 (51.22%)||5297045 (47.86%)||101824 (0.92%)|
|Estimate of potential fraud||296000 (2.7%)|
|Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed)
|5668731 (52.6%)||5001045 (46.4%)||101824 (0.9%)|
Trump is up a staggering 1,040,000 votes from 2016, more than double his gain over Romney.
Biden is up 792k, a Democrat record in Florida as the state drifts further right.
Bottom Line: Biden appears at least 296k votes heavy based on registration trends and historical data tracking with population increases. If accurate, counting only excess votes, Trump’s margin is FL is more accurately represented at 52.6% to 46.4%, or a 6.2% margin of victory, and margin of 667k votes.
Does that seem too high? It shouldn’t – these are typical margins for someone like Marco Rubio, who gets Trumpian numbers with Cuban and Venezuelan voters and pours it on in the red counties.
Best targets for audits: Lake, Pasco, Santa Rosa, Volusia, Walton.
Stats By County
Top 100 Worst Counties
Seth has listed Florida’s Brevard, Hillsborough, Lake, Pasco, and Volusia counties as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.
The following PDF shows a map of which precincts in the county had the most abnormal results in 2020:
Hillsborough County (Tampa)
According to Seth, Lake County, Florida, is showing some movement towards an audit of the election. See his Telegram post from Aug 31, 2021.
Palm Beach County
Pasco, Volusia, and Lake Counties
Seth’s Predictions vs Actual Results
Possible Voter Roll Manipulation
A number of states, both key competitive states, and not, have machined/trimmed/manipulated their voter rolls for the desired outcomes. See New Hampshire, Alaska, California, and Arizona.
There are other states with bloated rolls, like Florida and Texas. Colorado doesn’t show much movement in the two parties but tons of new registered indies/others, along with Washington and Oregon. Pennsylvania and North Carolina appear to have let their party rolls run clean, showing a tremendous beating getting ready to be done by Trump, but pulled things off differently.
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Florida so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.
|Certified Election Results||
In most states, the certified election results are available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website for details. States are also required by HAVA law to inform the public of how many absentee ballots were both sent and received to uniformed services and overseas voters.
|Voter Registration Rolls/Database||
In some states, these are freely available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website. In other states, voter rolls must be purchased and/or accessed via a signed legal agreement. Some officials are also obstructing access to the rolls, to make auditing difficult. Let us know via Telegram or via the comment section below if you experience issues.
|Cast Vote Records||Ordros Analytics has collated a repository of Cast Vote Records (CVRs) which list everyone who voted in the Nov 2020 election. Only some counties in some states are represented, but the list is growing.|
|The New York Times 2020 Election Results||Results for all states, with several maps and charts.|
|Data Explorer Tool||Our own tool for inspecting the 2020 New York Times data, including the time-series data of how the counting progressed. Also provides download links for raw JSON or CSV data, including counts for every precinct and county.|
|US Election Atlas||
Recommended when doing trend analysis, as shown on this page
Detailed results for 2020 and previous years. Some data is freely accessible on their website, while some, such as detailed historic results in CSV format, are purchasable for a fee.
This appears to be the source commonly used by Seth Keshel for his analysis, although we have not officially confirmed this.
Large collection of TIFF ballot images from Nov 2020 election.
|2020 General Election Data & Research||A broad collection of national stats, vote and registration counts, time-series data, voting machine information and manuals, PDF reports, and other research collated by citizen auditors.|
|Election Night Time-Series Data from Edison||
Provides more detail than is available from the New York Times, and includes numerous interactive charts.
Download ZIP of Raw Data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell, MagaRaccoon.com
|Weekly HAVV SSN Reports||
Social Security Administration (SSA) Weekly Data for Help America Vote Verification (HAVV) Transactions by State.
Learn more about this data
Published by Jeff O’Donnell, MagaRaccoon.com
If you have additional sources of election data, please let us know via Telegram, Twitter or post a comment below to assist.
A team of scientists from Election-Integrity.info produced the following reports:
“2020 Presidential Election Startling Vote Spikes” which includes a section on Florida
“2020 Presidential Election Contrast Analysis” which includes a section on Florida
Volunteers are needed to help verify the irregularities found. One key way this is done is through voter canvassing, with teams analyzing the county and state records and voter rolls, and others going door-to-door to identify whether the records match the actual residents living at the address.
Election Audit Groups on Telegram
Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @RealSKeshel.
To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Florida, you can join the following groups on Telegram:
- Defend Florida Community Canvassing
- Defend Florida (Website)
- Florida Election Integrity
- Florida For America (Website)
For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.
ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.