See also the main article on Vermont, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
| Trump votes | Biden votes | Other votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officially reported results | 112704 (30.7%) | 242820 (66.1%) | 11755 (3.2%) |
| Estimate of potential fraud | 34000 (9.3%) | ||
| Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed) |
112704 (33.8%) | 208820 (62.7%) | 11755 (3.5%) |
Vermont had 35k new registered voters. Tiny New Hampshire next door had 200k new registered voters, validating my belief voter rolls are being manipulated in certain states.
What a weird state. 2016 had some Democrat issues, Bern-outs throwing away their votes to third party; some gains are expected. Trump up nearly 20% from 2016 in votes in a state where 10 of 14 counties have population decline.
I am not confident third party votes aren’t being allocated to Biden at a certain clip given Clinton’s 55% share in Vermont. Trump won national bellwether Essex, which trends clean. 13 of the counties show suspect trends, and Chittenden (min. 10k) and Washington (4k) are obvious based on registration, pop. Decline, and Trump growth.
Biden appears to be 34k heavy in Vermont.
If 34k heavy, his margin would be 62.8% to 33.9%, or 97k.
Most in need of audits: Chittenden, Washington, Rutland, Windsor
Source: https://t.me/ElectionHQ2024/703
Methodology
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
Raw Data
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Vermont so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.
Election Audit Groups on Telegram
Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @ElectionHQ2024.
To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Vermont, you can join the following groups on Telegram:
For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.
ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.