From The Fall of the Bellwether Counties article. We identified 10 modern bellwether counties that consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000.
They are shown in the table below:
We produced the winning ranges for each of the bellwether counties, which you can see below. However before we do, we would like to point out:
🤯 Out of the 10 bellwether counties, 9 of them saw a decrease in percentage vote for Obama’s second term (in 2012).
In 2020, all 10 bellwether counties increased their percentage vote for Trump from 2016.
Average percentage increase from 2008 to 2012 (Obama): -2.16%
Average percentage increase from 2016 to 2020 (Trump): 4.35%
Warren County, IL
Bremer County, IA
Union County, IA
Traverse County, MN
Ransom County, ND
Sargent County, ND
Wood County, OH
Marshall County, SD
Essex County, VT
Forest County, WI
💡 Look for the number “20”. What do you notice about where the 2020 results are positioned within the previous winning ranges?
Have any thoughts or feedback on the data presented above? Let us know in the comments below.