See also the main article on Virginia, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
| Trump votes | Biden votes | Other votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officially reported results | 1962430 (44.0%) | 2413568 (54.1%) | 84765 (1.9%) |
| Estimate of potential fraud | 217000 (4.9%) | ||
| Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed) |
1962430 (46.2%) | 2196568 (51.8%) | 84765 (2.0%) |
Estimating 217k excess votes on a lenient evaluation.
At face value, overwhelming NOVA support for Biden created an even bigger partisan gap, even as the south and southwest became stronger for Trump. Most of the excess votes were piled up 1-2k at a time throughout the southern and eastern portions of Virginia, with about 73k between Prince William, Loudon, and Fairfax (lenient estimates). The vote stoppage in Virginia creates suspicion as to whether the state was being prevented from flipping, or just given some buffer room.
If accurate, Trump’s margin of loss in Virginia would have been 5.6%, or 51.8% to 46.2%, a margin of 235k votes. If vote flipping is occurring, then the state could have been down to the wire.
Best targets for audits: Culpeper, Chesterfield, Fauquier, Frederick, York, Spotsylvania, Stafford Co.
Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/59
Top 100 Worst Counties
Seth has listed Virginia’s Chesterfield, Loudoun, and Spotsylvania counties as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.
Events & Presentations
| Date | Presenter | Location | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Sep 20, 2021 | Seth Keshel |
Richmond, Virginia | More info |
Methodology
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
Raw Data
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Virginia so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.
Other Reports
A team of scientists from Election-Integrity.info produced the following reports:
-
“2020 Presidential Election Startling Vote Spikes” which includes a section on Virginia
-
“2020 Presidential Election Contrast Analysis” which lists Virginia as the state with the 7th highest number of unexpected Biden votes
Election Audit Groups on Telegram
Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @ElectionHQ2024.
To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Virginia, you can join the following groups on Telegram:
- Virginia Audit Channel
- Virginia Audit Chat
- Virginians For America First
- Virginians For America First (Website)
For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.
ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.