See also the main article on Tennessee, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
| Trump votes | Biden votes | Other votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officially reported results | 1852475 (60.7%) | 1143711 (37.5%) | 54898 (1.8%) |
| Estimate of potential fraud | 101000 (3.3%) | ||
| Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed) |
1852475 (62.8%) | 1042711 (35.3%) | 54898 (1.9%) |
Very troubling map of Tennessee.
Trump received 330k more votes than in 2016, a GOP record increase even above the low turnout ‘00 election to ‘04. For comparison: Obama increased +51k from Kerry, down 127k, Clinton down 90k, even with MASSIVE GROWTH in Tennessee. Now Biden is up 273k, with at least 101k excess. The state was a wipeout, even giving Biden a modern record vote gain for Democrats.
Shelby County (Memphis) isn’t too far from the trend. Davidson should have huge Democrat growth and does, flagging it for 15k excess (lenient). Previous high gain for Democrats is 16k; Clinton up 5k, and that came with 13k Republican loss in 2016. Trump is up 16k, with Biden up 51k – though I’d expect a large surge there.
The most significant areas are in proximity to Davidson, with Knox being another spot with some spread. Hamilton is obvious, at least 10k heavy.
Best Trump county audit targets: Hamilton, Knox, Rutherford.
If Biden is 101k heavy, Trump margin would be 62.7% to 35.3%, or 809k.
Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/118
Top 100 Worst Counties
Seth has listed Tennessee’s Rutherford County as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.
Stats By County
Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/118
Seth’s Presentation in Murfreesboro, TN
The following video from an election integrity event in Murfreesboro, Tennessee (Jan 22, 2022) includes a presentation from Seth Keshel, beginning at the 1:40:30 mark.
A further 6min interview with Seth was also recorded after the event.
Further Updates
Methodology
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
Raw Data
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Tennessee so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.
Election Audit Groups on Telegram
Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @ElectionHQ2024.
To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Tennessee, you can join the following groups on Telegram:
- Tennessee Audit Force
- Tennessee Audit Force Discussion
- Tennessee One Six (helping Jan 6 political prisoners)
- Tennessee One Six Discussion (helping Jan 6 political prisoners)
- TNAuditChat
For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.
ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.