See also the main article on Oklahoma, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
| Trump votes | Biden votes | Other votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officially reported results | 1020280 (65.4%) | 503890 (32.3%) | 35881 (2.3%) |
| Estimate of potential fraud | 39000 (2.5%) | ||
| Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed) |
1020280 (67.1%) | 464890 (30.6%) | 35881 (2.4%) |
Something seems off when Trump gains 71k new votes in Oklahoma, and Biden cranks out 84k, especially when every single county trends more Republican in registration, with that indicator forecasting wider margins each election since 2008.
Biden is at least 39k heavy per trend/population/registration analysis. Oklahoma County (OKC) is the big issue and had a contested house race. Republicans outregistered Democrats 5 to 3 after Trump won it by 10.5% in 2016, but Trump somehow barely held the county. The numbers suggest electronic fraud, since the Democrat gain of 30k is an all-time high.
Tulsa is also ugly, Democrats down over 300 net on the rolls, Republicans up over 5k new registrants, Democrats gain record 21k. Cleveland County, Democrat net loss in registrations, Republicans +5.6k, record gain of 10k (7k previous).
Biden appears to be 39k heavy in Oklahoma.
If 39k heavy, Trump would be 67.0% to 30.6%, or 555k.
Most in need of audits – Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland
Source: https://t.me/ElectionHQ2024/709
Top 100 Worst Counties
Seth has listed Oklahoma County as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.
Oklahoma County Heat Map
Events & Presentations
| Date | Presenter | Location | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Dec 16, 2021 | Seth Keshel |
Duncan, Oklahoma | More info |
| Tue Oct 5, 2021 | Seth Keshel |
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma | More info |
Further Updates
Methodology
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
Raw Data
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Oklahoma so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.