See also the main article on New Mexico, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
| Trump votes | Biden votes | Other votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officially reported results | 401894 (43.5%) | 501614 (54.3%) | 20323 (2.2%) |
| Estimate of potential fraud | 84000 (9.1%) | ||
| Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed) |
401894 (47.9%) | 417614 (49.7%) | 20323 (2.4%) |
The first thing “off” about New Mexico is that it bucked the statewide registration trend predictor. Democrats are going out of business here as well in most counties except Bernalillo (Albuquerque; voter roll is down there by over 3k), Dona Ana, and Santa Fe. Trump GOP cut 1.6% off Democrat registration advantage, which is several points smaller than when Bush won New Mexico in ‘04 (the last time it went Republican).
New Mexico provides party registration information so it is easy to see how trends progress over decades. Albuquerque did trend 2 points Democrat but voter rolls are shrinking. Dona Ana almost always trends with El Paso (8.7 points more red) counties (1984 exception) but went more blue than last time.
Some GOP counties have obvious shaving going on, especially San Juan and Valencia. There appears to be a coordinated harvesting/fraud effort going on, mostly in the north.
Areas adjacent to the Texas Panhandle went highly Republican.
We need forensic audits in at least 8 counties. I had New Mexico tilt to Biden. A Trump upset is possible.
Strategic audit targets: San Juan and Valencia counties.
Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/12
Stats By County
Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/12
Top 100 Worst Counties
Seth has listed New Mexico’s Bernalillo County as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.
Otero County
County-Level Breakdowns
We’ve analyzed some additional stats for counties in New Mexico, including Union, Catron, Quay and Sierra, which are being discussed in our Gitlab discussion area:
Further Analysis on New Mexico
This video, featuring Seth Keshel, discusses New Mexico, starting at 25min mark.
Methodology
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
Raw Data
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for New Mexico so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.
Election Audit Groups on Telegram
Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @ElectionHQ2024.
To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in New Mexico, you can join the following groups on Telegram:
- New Mexico Audit Force
- New Mexico Audit Force Discussion
- New Mexico One Six Discussion (helping Jan 6 political prisoners)
- Verify New Mexico
For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.
ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.