See also the main article on Missouri, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
| Trump votes | Biden votes | Other votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officially reported results | 1718736 (56.8%) | 1253014 (41.4%) | 54479 (1.8%) |
| Estimate of potential fraud | 49000 (1.6%) | ||
| Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed) |
1718736 (57.7%) | 1204014 (40.4%) | 54479 (1.8%) |
Missouri showed me a few surprises, namely that St. Louis City and Jackson County trended clean. This does not mean no fraud, but rather the trends/registration/population project accurate trend/vote alignment. The same cannot be said for the suburban counties (St. Charles, 10k heavy), and Clay (8k), both with substantial Trump gains and competing Biden record gains to cut margins. I assess 49k excess Biden votes statewide.
Refer to the spreadsheet chart for the yellow counties and remaining counties over 40,000 population. Many of the middle-tier counties are coming in slightly heavy, but not overwhelmingly so.
If Biden is 49k heavy, an accurate margin is 17.3%, or 57.7% to 40.4% - 515k votes.
Best targets for audits (Republican-controlled): Clay, St. Charles, Jefferson, Greene
Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/114
Top 100 Worst Counties
Seth has listed Missouri’s St. Charles County as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.
Further Updates
According to Seth, St. Charles County, Missouri, is showing some movement towards an audit of the election. See his Telegram post from Aug 31, 2021.
Methodology
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
Raw Data
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Missouri so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.
Other Reports
- A team of scientists from Election-Integrity.info produced the report “2020 Presidential Election Startling Vote Spikes” which includes a section on Missouri
Election Audit Groups on Telegram
Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @ElectionHQ2024.
To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Missouri, you can join the following groups on Telegram:
- Missouri Audit Force
- Missouri Audit Force Discussion
- Missouri Canvassers
- Missouri Canvassers (Gab)
- Missouri Grass Roots Audit
- Missouri One Six (helping Jan 6 political prisoners)
- Missouri One Six Discussion (helping Jan 6 political prisoners)
For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.
ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.