See also the main article on Maine, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
| Trump votes | Biden votes | Other votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officially reported results | 360737 (44.0%) | 435072 (53.1%) | 23761 (2.9%) |
| Estimate of potential fraud | 31000 (3.8%) | ||
| Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed) |
360737 (45.7%) | 404072 (51.2%) | 23761 (3.0%) |
Statewide, Maine’s election numbers trended as registration indicates, with the state moving 2.3% left in registration, with most third party voters coming back to support Biden, at least on paper. New Hampshire’s main suspicious issue was in mass volume of registrations dwarfing those from 2012-16. The one that stood out this year was Cumberland, a 27k to 3k Dem registration advantage.
Trump is up 25k from 2016, Biden up over Clinton by 77k, and above Obama’s 422k from 2008’s 17.3% blowout. Trump took the single electoral vote from ME-2 on both campaigns.
Cumberland and York, in southern area of the state are about 15k and 6k over expected outcomes.
If Biden is 31k heavy, an accurate victory margin for him would be 5.6%, or about 51.6% to 46.0%. If there are votes being flipped, it could be a different story.
Best audit target – Androscoggin (3k heavy), Penobscot (2k heavy)
Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/95
Top 100 Worst Counties
Seth has listed Maine’s Cumberland County as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.
Methodology
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
Raw Data
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Maine so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.
Other Reports
- A team of scientists from Election-Integrity.info produced the report “2020 Presidential Election Startling Vote Spikes” which includes a section on Maine