See also the main article on Louisiana, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
| Trump votes | Biden votes | Other votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officially reported results | 1255776 (58.5%) | 856034 (39.9%) | 34327 (1.6%) |
| Estimate of potential fraud | 36000 (1.7%) | ||
| Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed) |
1255776 (59.5%) | 820034 (38.9%) | 34327 (1.6%) |
Louisiana resembles Kentucky and West Virginia in registration, being states with heavy historical Democrat registrations but have been going red federally for two decades. Now the party switching is coming but with less effect (but still pertinent) on results than in other states.
Each gained 76k from 2016 totals, but Biden appears 36k heavy. Orleans has a clean trend in keeping with population and registration, so nothing visible from my discipline there. East Baton Rouge, Jefferson, Lafayette, and Caddo are chipping in with some slight excesses, but not majorly compared to population.
Best target for a forensic audit in the state is St. Tammany – way over norms, a 10k Democrat vote bump as they’ve been stagnant for several cycles in a growing parish. Republicans had 41 times the net number of voter registrations there, which leads me to estimate a minimum of 7,000 excess/suspicious votes for Biden.
If Biden is 36k heavy, Trump margin would be 59.5% to 38.8%, or 436k.
Best target for an audit: St. Tammany
Source: https://t.me/ElectionHQ2024/693
St. Tammany Parish
Source: Telegram Post, Aug 28, 2021
Top 100 Worst Counties
Seth has listed Louisiana’s St. Tammany County as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.
Further Updates
Methodology
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
Raw Data
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Louisiana so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.