See also the main article on Kentucky, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
| Trump votes | Biden votes | Other votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officially reported results | 1326646 (62.1%) | 772474 (36.2%) | 36276 (1.7%) |
| Estimate of potential fraud | 62000 (2.9%) | ||
| Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed) |
1326646 (64.0%) | 710474 (34.3%) | 36276 (1.7%) |
Kentucky is riddled with problems, showing 22 counties with issues, totaling roughly 62k excess Biden votes. Jefferson County (Louisville) is tied for the most with 10k (lenient estimate), but classifies as yellow due to population size. Fayette (Lexington) is coded red, estimated at about 8k excess for Biden.
Refer to the spreadsheet chart to see the network throughout the north and central Kentucky of yellow-class counties diverting from a very strong GOP trend and Democrat die-off.
Kenton County is easily the most lucrative target in the state, strong GOP trend in the county, with about 10k excess Biden votes.
If Biden is 62k heavy, an accurate margin for Trump is 64.0%, or 64.0% to 34.2%, or 617k votes.
Best Trump county audit targets: Boone, Kenton, Warren
Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/116
Top 100 Worst Counties
Seth has listed Kentucky’s Kenton County as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.
Events & Presentations
| Date | Presenter | Location | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 8, 2021 | Seth Keshel, Dr. Douglas Frank, and David Clements |
Bowling Green, Kentucky | More info |
Methodology
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
Raw Data
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Kentucky so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.
Election Audit Groups on Telegram
Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @ElectionHQ2024.
To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Kentucky, you can join the following groups on Telegram:
For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.
ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.